Propane Price Forecast (per EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 8 April 2026)
The Energy Information Administration publishes a Short-Term Energy Outlook on the second Tuesday of each month, and a Winter Fuels Outlook annually in October. This page quotes the most recent published figures verbatim and does not produce its own forecasts.
The most recent STEO numbers (April 2026 release)
From the April 2026 STEO release, the EIA forecast for US residential propane is summarised below. We quote STEO with the issue date stamped; we do not derive our own projections. STEO is a model output, not a guarantee.
Residential propane (US average)
- 2025-2026 winter heating season (Oct 2025 to Mar 2026) ended at $2.674 per gallon (EIA, week of 30 March 2026). The full-season average came in close to the EIA STEO forecast.
- 2026-2027 winter heating season forecast(Oct 2026 to Mar 2027): EIA STEO projects the residential average to be in line with the 2025-2026 average, with crude oil and natural gas inventory paths assumed at central-case levels. Cold-snap surges and supply disruptions are not built into the central case.
- Calendar 2026 average forecast: in the band defined by the 2024 calendar average ($2.482) and the 2025 calendar average ($2.611), per EIA monthly archive context.
The Winter Fuels Outlook (most recent: October 2025)
The October 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook (EIA) projected average household winter expenditure for propane-using households at roughly $1,440 across the 2025-2026 heating season, with regional variation primarily driven by climate and tank size. The outlook assumed a winter slightly warmer than the 10-year average across most of the country and slightly colder in the upper Midwest.
The 2026-2027 Winter Fuels Outlook is published in October 2026. The figures above will be replaced with that release within 48 hours of publication.
What the forecast does not say
STEO is a central-case projection. It does not predict cold-snap surges (which can lift the residential price by 30 to 60 cents per gallon over a 4 to 6 week window), supply disruptions (the 2022 Russia-Ukraine effect on global NGL pricing), or distributor competitive shifts at the local level. The confidence intervals EIA publishes alongside the central case are wide, and all are listed in the STEO data tables.
The forecast also does not address the residential-to-wholesale spread directly. STEO models the wholesale path; the spread ( currently $1.89 per gallon) is shaped by transport, storage, tanker delivery, and regional distributor margin, none of which STEO publishes a separate forecast for.
Inventory levels (most recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report)
US propane and propylene inventories at the end of March 2026 stood close to the five-year average for the same week. EIA tracks this in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Heading into the 2026-2027 heating season, the inventory build through summer is one of the largest non-weather inputs into autumn pricing: a build that finishes October above the 5-year average tends to dampen autumn price increases; a below-average build lifts them.
We do not invent forecasts
This site has a single editorial discipline on the forecast page: where a number is described as a forecast, it is sourced verbatim from EIA STEO or the Winter Fuels Outlook, with the issue date stamped. We do not produce our own projections. The reason is simple: STEO is a fully documented model maintained by EIA staff economists, with confidence intervals, scenario assumptions, and peer review. Anything we layer on top would be a guess.
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, eia.gov/outlooks/steo/; EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, eia.gov/outlooks/steo/special/winter/.