Propane Price Forecast (per EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 7 July 2026)
The Energy Information Administration publishes a Short-Term Energy Outlook each month, and a Winter Fuels Outlook annually in October. This page quotes the most recent published figures verbatim and does not produce its own forecasts.
The most recent STEO numbers (July 2026 release)
The July 2026 STEO reflects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Iran signed a memorandum on 18 June 2026 that ended their conflict and reopened the strait, and EIA now expects most shut-in crude oil production to return to near pre-conflict averages by the end of 2026, with the remainder back online in the first quarter of 2027. On that basis EIA forecasts Brent crude to average about $82 per barrel in 2026 - about $74 in the third quarter - before easing to about $65 per barrel in 2027 as oil inventories build. That is a sharp reversal from the June outlook, which had assumed the strait would stay closed into the third quarter and put Brent near $95. We quote STEO with the issue date stamped; we do not derive our own projections. STEO is a model output, not a guarantee.
Residential propane (US average)
- 2025-2026 winter heating season(Oct 2025 to Mar 2026) ended at $2.674 per gallon (EIA, week of 30 March 2026). EIA's October 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook had forecast propane-heating households would spend less than the prior winter, and the season tracked close to that path.
- 2026-2027 winter heating season(Oct 2026 to Mar 2027): the monthly STEO does not publish a residential propane price forecast outside the annual Winter Fuels Outlook (next due October 2026), so EIA has no point forecast for next winter's residential propane price yet. The signal worth watching is crude, but it now points down rather than up: propane is a crude-correlated NGL, and with the Strait of Hormuz reopened the July STEO has Brent easing toward $65 per barrel by 2027, relieving the upside pressure that a closed strait had implied. Mont Belvieu propane spot was around $0.73 per gallon as of mid July 2026 (our daily tracker), and US propane inventories were about 29% above their five-year average in early July.
- Calendar reference (observed, not forecast): the 2024 survey-week average was $2.506 and the 2025 survey-week average $2.589, per the EIA weekly archive.
The Winter Fuels Outlook (most recent: October 2025)
The October 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook (EIA) forecast that the average household heating primarily with propane would spend about $1,210 across the 2025-2026 winter, down roughly 9% from the prior winter, mainly because retail propane prices were lower. The base case assumed weather slightly milder than the prior winter across much of the country. Season totals (November through March) varied by region: about $1,101 in the South, $1,267 in the Midwest, and $1,667 in the Northeast.
The 2026-2027 Winter Fuels Outlook is published in October 2026. The figures above will be replaced with that release within 48 hours of publication.
What the forecast does not say
STEO is a central-case projection. It does not predict cold-snap surges (which can lift the residential price by 30 to 60 cents per gallon over a 4 to 6 week window), supply disruptions (the 2022 Russia-Ukraine effect on global NGL pricing), or distributor competitive shifts at the local level. The confidence intervals EIA publishes alongside the central case are wide, and all are listed in the STEO data tables.
The forecast also does not address the residential-to-wholesale spread directly. STEO models the wholesale path; the spread ( currently about $1.84 per gallon) is shaped by transport, storage, tanker delivery, and regional distributor margin, none of which STEO publishes a separate forecast for.
Inventory levels (most recent EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report)
US propane and propylene inventories were about 29% above the five-year average for the same week in early July 2026 (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, week ending 3 July 2026). Heading into the 2026-2027 heating season, the inventory build through summer is one of the largest non-weather inputs into autumn pricing: a build that finishes October above the 5-year average tends to dampen autumn price increases; a below-average build lifts them.
We do not invent forecasts
This site has a single editorial discipline on the forecast page: where a number is described as a forecast, it is sourced verbatim from EIA STEO or the Winter Fuels Outlook, with the issue date stamped. We do not produce our own projections. The reason is simple: STEO is a fully documented model maintained by EIA staff economists, with confidence intervals, scenario assumptions, and peer review. Anything we layer on top would be a guess.
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, eia.gov/outlooks/steo/; EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, eia.gov/outlooks/steo/special/winter/.
Common questions about the propane price forecast
Will propane prices go down in 2026?
EIA has not published a point forecast for the 2026-2027 residential propane price yet; its residential forecast is the annual Winter Fuels Outlook, next due October 2026. The 2025-2026 heating season ended at $2.674 per gallon (EIA, week of 30 March 2026), and the October 2025 Winter Fuels Outlook had households heating primarily with propane spending about 9% less than the prior winter. On the wholesale side the near-term signal has softened: after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum on 18 June 2026 that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook cut its Brent crude forecast to about $82 per barrel for 2026 (about $74 in the third quarter) and about $65 in 2027. Propane is a crude-correlated NGL, so an easing crude path removes what had been the main upside risk into autumn. Mont Belvieu spot was around $0.73 per gallon as of mid July 2026, and US propane inventories were about 29% above their five-year average in early July 2026, both of which tend to dampen autumn increases.
What is the projected propane price for 2026?
This site does not publish its own projection. EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (issued 7 July 2026) forecasts Brent crude but does not carry a residential propane price forecast outside the annual Winter Fuels Outlook, and the 2026-2027 Winter Fuels Outlook is due October 2026. The most recent published readings are the 2025-2026 season ending at $2.674 per gallon and survey-week averages of $2.506 (2024) and $2.589 (2025).
When does EIA publish the next propane price forecast?
The next monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook is due 11 August 2026, and the next annual Winter Fuels Outlook - EIA's residential propane price forecast for the 2026-2027 heating season - is published in October 2026.
What could push propane prices higher in the 2026-2027 winter?
With the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the July 2026 STEO now has Brent crude easing to about $82 per barrel in 2026 and $65 in 2027, so crude is a mild downside for wholesale propane rather than the upside risk it looked like in June. The residual upside risks STEO does not model are weather and supply: cold-snap surges can lift the residential price 30 to 60 cents per gallon over a 4 to 6 week window, and a supply disruption (as in the 2022 Russia-Ukraine effect on global NGL pricing) can do the same. On the supply side, a summer inventory build that finishes October above the five-year average tends to dampen autumn increases; a below-average build lifts them.