Propane Price Forecast (per EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 6 October 2026)
The Energy Information Administration publishes a Short-Term Energy Outlook each month, and a Winter Fuels Outlook each October that it updates through the winter. This page quotes the most recent published figures and does not produce its own forecasts.
EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook, published 6 October 2026, expects residential propane to average $2.52 per gallon this winter, 2.4% below last winter, and the average propane-heated home to spend $1,246, down 3.2%.
- Weather cases: $2.60 if the winter is 10% colder than EIA's base case, $2.47 if 10% warmer.
- By region: Northeast $3.28, South $3.19, Midwest $2.04 per gallon.
- Crude, the upside risk: the October STEO raised Brent to about $96/bbl for 2026 and $84/bbl for 2027 (from $91 and $74 a month earlier).
- Latest weekly survey reading: $2.598/gal (EIA, week ending 5 October 2026). Mont Belvieu wholesale spot: about $0.92/gal as of early October 2026.
Outlook prices exclude taxes and are a household-weighted average of the Northeast, Midwest and South, so they are not the same measure as the weekly survey figure. The full table is below.
The Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (published 6 October 2026)
EIA published its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 on 6 October 2026, built on the price and weather forecasts in the October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. Its summary for propane reads: “We expect propane prices will be lower this winter, leading to a 3% drop in expenditures for homes heating primarily with propane on average nationally. In the Northeast, we expect decreasing consumption and lower prices to drive expenditures down 15% this winter, compared with last winter.” The base case assumes national temperatures similar to last winter, warmer in the Northeast and much colder in the West. Season figures, November through March:
| Region | Price per gallon | Change | Season spend | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $3.28 | -5.7% | $1,687 | -14.7% |
| Midwest | $2.04 | -3.3% | $1,305 | -4.3% |
| South | $3.19 | -0.6% | $1,164 | -0.4% |
| US average | $2.52 | -2.4% | $1,246 | -3.2% |
If the winter is colder or warmer
EIA runs two side cases, a winter 10% colder and one 10% warmer than its base case. Season spending for a propane-heated home:
| Region | 10% warmer | Base case | 10% colder |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $1,566 | $1,687 | $1,868 |
| Midwest | $1,194 | $1,305 | $1,473 |
| South | $1,090 | $1,164 | $1,269 |
| US average | $1,151 | $1,246 | $1,385 |
The US average price by month in the base case runs Nov 2026 $2.51, Dec 2026 $2.52, Jan 2027 $2.52, Feb 2027 $2.53, Mar 2027 $2.52, a flat path, against a winter 2025-2026 that EIA puts at $2.58 on the same measure. The US figures are a household-weighted average of the Northeast, Midwest and South, which is how EIA constructs them. Read the edition: Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (table WF01, xlsx).
The STEO crude path (October 2026 release)
The October 2026 STEO, issued 6 October 2026, raised its crude forecast sharply: Brent now averages about $96 per barrel in 2026 and $84 in 2027, against $91 and $74 in the September edition, and EIA expects about $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14higher than a month earlier. Propane is a crude-correlated gas liquid, so a firmer crude path is an upside risk for wholesale propane. EIA's winter propane forecast already reflects that path and still comes out lower than last winter. STEO is a model output, not a guarantee.
Observed, not forecast
- Latest weekly survey reading: $2.598 per gallon for the week ending 5 October 2026, the latest weekly reading of the 2026-2027 season (EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey).
- 2025-2026 season: the weekly survey closed the season at $2.674 per gallon (week of 30 March 2026).
- Mont Belvieu spot was around $0.92 per gallon as of early October 2026 (our daily tracker).
- Calendar reference: the 2024 survey-week average was $2.506 and the 2025 survey-week average $2.589, per the EIA weekly archive.
What the forecast does not say
The outlook is a central case with two weather variants. It does not model a severe cold snap or a supply disruption. For scale, the weekly survey's all-time record was set in January 2014, when the US residential average went from $2.829 (week of 6 January 2014) to the all-time record of $4.010 (week of 27 January 2014), $1.05 of it in the final week (the 2014 spike in full). It also says nothing about local dealer pricing.
The forecast also does not address the residential-to-wholesale spread directly. The spread (currently about $1.67 per gallon between the latest weekly residential reading and Mont Belvieu spot) is shaped by transport, storage, tanker delivery, and regional distributor margin, none of which EIA publishes a separate forecast for.
Inventory levels (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 18 September 2026)
US propane and propylene inventories were about 19% above the five-year average in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending 18 September 2026, a draw of 1.2 million barrels on the prior week. A build that finishes the autumn above the five-year average tends to dampen price increases; a below-average build lifts them.
We do not invent forecasts
This site has a single editorial discipline on the forecast page: where a number is described as a forecast, it is EIA's, from the Short-Term Energy Outlook or the Winter Fuels Outlook, with the issue date stamped. We do not produce our own projections. EIA publishes its assumptions and weather cases alongside the central case; anything we layered on top would be a guess.
Sources: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 edition issued 6 October 2026 (eia.gov/outlooks/steo/); EIA Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026 (article, table WF01).
Common questions about the propane price forecast
Will propane prices go down in 2026?
EIA expects them to be a little lower this winter. Its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026 with the October Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts the US residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon on average from November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below the $2.58 it puts on last winter, and average spending by propane-heated homes down 3.2% to $1,246. In EIA's words: "We expect propane prices will be lower this winter, leading to a 3% drop in expenditures for homes heating primarily with propane on average nationally. In the Northeast, we expect decreasing consumption and lower prices to drive expenditures down 15% this winter, compared with last winter." Crude is the counterweight: the same STEO raised its Brent forecast to $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, from $91 and $74 a month earlier. The most recent weekly survey reading is $2.598 per gallon for the week ending 5 October 2026, the latest weekly reading of the 2026-2027 season (EIA).
What is the projected propane price for 2026?
This site does not publish its own projection. EIA's projection for the coming winter is $2.52 per gallon, the US average residential propane price for November 2026 through March 2027 in the base case of its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (6 October 2026). Its monthly path runs from $2.51 in November to $2.52 in March. With a winter 10% colder than its base case EIA puts the price at $2.60, and with one 10% warmer at $2.47. EIA notes its outlook prices exclude taxes and are a household-weighted average, so they are not the same measure as the weekly survey average.
When does EIA publish the next propane price forecast?
The next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due 10 November 2026. EIA updates the Winter Fuels Outlook figures with each STEO through the winter, so the November edition will revise the $2.52 figure published on 6 October 2026.
What could push propane prices higher in the 2026-2027 winter?
Weather first. EIA's own colder case (a winter 10% colder than its base case) turns the 3.2% fall in propane heating bills into a 7.6% rise, and in the Midwest, where the most homes heat with propane, into a 7.9% rise. Crude is the second: the October STEO raised its Brent forecast to $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, and to $105 for the fourth quarter of 2026. A severe cold snap is the case no outlook models: in January 2014 the weekly US residential average went from $2.829 (week of 6 January 2014) to the all-time record of $4.010 (week of 27 January 2014) in three weeks.
How much will a propane fill cost me, and can you tell me a specific dealer's price?
This site does not hold individual dealers' prices, and we would not quote a rate a dealer has not set. For a specific fill the only accurate figure is a quote from the dealer, and it is worth calling more than one, because on a larger fill the price per gallon often improves. For context, EIA collects the residential price weekly from October through March and publishes each week's reading the following Wednesday, so the most recent published national average is $2.598 per gallon for the week ending 5 October 2026. State averages vary widely, and several Midwest and Plains states sit well below the national figure. Some state energy offices also run their own surveys of delivered retail propane and publish the result. This site reads two of them: Maine at $3.46 per gallon statewide on 5 October 2026 (Maine DOER), and New York at $3.12 per gallon statewide on 21 September 2026 (NYSERDA). A pre-buy or a larger delivery can lower the per-gallon rate, but the dealer's quote is what counts. (Answer added after a reader question, September 2026.)