Propane Price FAQ (Latest EIA: 5 October 2026)

As of the week ending 5 October 2026, the US average residential propane price was $2.598 per gallon (EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey). State-level prices across the 38 covered states ranged from $1.608 (North Dakota) to $4.864 (Florida) for the same week. Live tracker on the homepage.

EIA published no reading for the week before the week of 5 October 2026, so there is no week-over-week move to report. Compared with the same week of 2025, residential propane is 7.5% (higher). The price chart shows the full season trajectory. We do not predict direction; we report it.

Four structural drivers shape the residential propane price: weather (heating-degree-days), inventory levels going into October, crude oil and NGL output, and regional distribution costs. Cold winters draw inventory faster than expected; tight inventory amplifies wholesale moves; the retail-wholesale spread carries those moves into household bills. Walked in detail at how prices are set.

Late summer and early autumn. The EIA residential survey collects weekly October through March, and within that window the early October open was the cheapest published reading of the season in 8 of the 12 seasons from 2014-2015 to 2025-2026. In the last four seasons it ran from about 5 cents (2022-23) to 35 cents (2024-25) below that season's peak. Dealers widely offer summer-fill pricing in July through September, before the survey resumes. The full overlay sits on /seasonal-patterns/. For buying-strategy advice (pre-buy contracts, capped-price contracts, summer fill discounts), see propanecostpergallon.com/when-to-buy.

The 2026 calendar-year average is not yet final; it takes in the January to March weeks and the October to December weeks. The 2025-2026 heating season averaged $2.553 per gallon across the 26 weekly readings October 2025 through March 2026. Across the survey weeks EIA published in calendar 2025, the average was $2.589. Year-to-date context updates with each EIA release.

The EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey publishes state-level prices for 38 states, and we carry a per-state page for every one of them. For the week ending 5 October 2026 they ranged from $1.608 per gallon in North Dakota to $4.864 in Florida, against a US average of $2.598. Each state page has the weekly chart and regional context. See /by-state/. For state-level household annual cost rather than market price, see propanecostpergallon.com/prices-by-state.

The Mont Belvieu spot benchmark, the standard wholesale price for US propane, recently traded near $0.933 per gallon (EIA daily series, week ending 5 October 2026). That is the price at which an NGL trader can transact a rail-car or pipeline shipment, not the price any homeowner can transact at. The retail-wholesale spread is explained here.

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook is the canonical forecast. Issued the second Tuesday of each month, it projects the residential propane price path through the next heating season. We quote STEO verbatim with the issue date stamped at /forecast/. We do not produce our own forecasts.

The current spread between residential ($2.598) and Mont Belvieu wholesale ($0.933) is $1.67 per gallon. That covers pipeline transport, regional terminal storage, tanker truck delivery, local distributor margin, tank rental amortisation, the seasonality risk premium, and regulatory fees. Full breakdown at /wholesale-vs-retail/.

The EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey publishes the residential price every Wednesday afternoon during the heating season (October through March). Outside it, EIA's rule is one reading per month taken on the second Monday, but it has published none since May 2025, so in practice the last March figure holds through the summer. The year-round signal in that window is the Mont Belvieu daily spot series. Retail prices typically change with each fill quote. Full refresh schedule at /methodology/.

The terms are commonly used interchangeably; on this site we distinguish them. Price is the market figure (residential, wholesale, spot) reported by EIA. Cost is the household out-of-pocket figure for a year, including the gallons used, the tank size, fees, and per-fill quotes. For household cost calculation see propanecostpergallon.com. For market price tracking stay here.

EIA expects a slightly cheaper winter. Its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026, forecasts the US average residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon from November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below last winter, and $2.60 if the winter is 10% colder than its base case. Crude is the upside risk: the October 2026 STEO raised its Brent forecast to about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84for 2027. EIA's forecasts are the only ones we quote. See /forecast/.

The EIA weekly residential survey peaked at $4.010 per gallon in the week ending 27 January 2014, during the polar vortex cold snap; the highest monthly average is $3.692 (February 2014). The 2022 peak (week ending 14 March 2022, $3.019 per gallon) is the second-highest weekly reading, driven by the global NGL repricing after the Russia-Ukraine invasion. Both are visible on the 12-year annual range chart.

The correlation is real but loose. Propane is a natural gas liquid produced both at gas processing plants (the larger US source) and at oil refineries. The gas-processing dominance means propane tracks NGL output more than crude. Crude shocks (2022) propagate, but normal-market correlations are weaker than headlines suggest. See how prices are set.

The Mont Belvieu daily spot benchmark is the standard. EIA publishes the daily series at eer_epllpa_pf4_y44mb_dpgD. FRED mirrors it as DPROPANEMBTX. Recent quote (week ending 5 October 2026): $0.933 per gallon. That is the wholesale figure; consumers pay residential.