Propane Price Seasonal Patterns: When Prices Rise and Fall (2026)
Propane production is roughly constant year-round; demand is highly seasonal. The result is a residential price that opens each survey season at its published low in October and typically peaks in February. The EIA residential survey runs October through March only, so the published data covers the heating season; dealer summer-fill quotes in the April-September gap are not surveyed. The chart shows the last five heating seasons overlaid.
The 5-season overlay chart
When is the cheapest month, on average?
Within the published EIA archive (2016 through the 2025-26 season, averaged across each month), October is the cheapest published month at $2.294 per gallon and February the most expensive at $2.484, a 19-cent average gap. In an abnormal season the gap is far larger: the 2021-22 season ran from $2.663 in October to $2.993 in March, and the 2024-25 season opened at $2.420 in October and peaked at $2.746 in February. EIA's last off-season residential reading was $2.518 for the week of 12 May 2025; dealer summer-fill quotes are not surveyed, so no public series shows what they were. The year-round Mont Belvieu wholesale spot price is published: its monthly average fell to $0.605 a gallon in November 2025, the low of that year, and was $0.688 in August 2026 before rising to $0.848 in September (EIA EER_EPLLPA_PF4_Y44MB_DPG).
The 2026-2027 season so far
EIA has published 3 weekly US residential readings for the 2026-2027 season. The latest is $2.689 a gallon for the week of 19 October 2026, against an October archive average of $2.294.
| Survey week | US residential ($/gal) | vs October archive average |
|---|---|---|
| October 5, 2026 | $2.586 | +29.2c |
| October 12, 2026 | $2.633 | +33.9c |
| October 19, 2026 | $2.689 | +39.5c |
Source: EIA W_EPLLPA_PRS_NUS_DPG weekly survey. The October average is the 2016-2025 mean in the month table below. The monthly figure for October 2026 is not published until the month closes.
| Month | Archive average ($/gal) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct | $2.294 | Season open; cheapest published month on average |
| Nov | $2.343 | |
| Dec | $2.390 | |
| Jan | $2.424 | |
| Feb | $2.484 | Heating-season peak on average |
| Mar | $2.480 | Survey closes end of March |
Source: EIA M_EPLLPA_PRS_NUS_DPG, published readings 2016 through the 2025-26 season close, arithmetic mean per month. The survey publishes October through March only. The pattern holds across all years; the level shifts.
When the pattern breaks
The seasonal shape is a tendency, not a rule. Three years in the recent archive show meaningfully different shapes:
- 2014. Polar vortex spike, winter heating premiums never seen since. Annual high $4.010, low $2.368, average $2.856.
- 2020. Pandemic demand shock; the cheapest year in the series. Annual high $2.010, low $1.772, average $1.909.
- 2022. Russia-Ukraine supply disruption raised the global NGL floor. Annual high $3.019, low $2.660, average $2.759.
The implication: in the published data, a buyer who filled at the October open beat the February price in every one of the last five seasons, but by as little as 4 cents (2022-23, $2.663 against $2.703) and as much as 33 cents (2024-25, $2.420 against $2.746). A buyer who tries to time individual cold snaps will beat the average sometimes and miss it sometimes. The decision is probabilistic, not certain.
What the data implies for 19 October 2026-onwards
The 2025-2026 heating season ended at $2.674 per gallon (week of 30 March 2026). The published archive puts the average October open 19 cents below the average February peak. On a 400-gallon fill, 19 cents a gallon is $76. That is the average gap inside the survey season only; what a dealer quotes for a summer fill is not surveyed, so this site does not put a number on it. The size of the gap in any particular year depends on the autumn inventory build and on crude movement.