Winter Propane Price Per Gallon: 2025-2026 Recap
A walk through what residential propane prices did across the 2025-2026 heating season, where the demand-and-supply pressure showed up in the EIA weekly survey, and what the pattern says about the season just ended.
How the season actually played out
The 2025-2026 heating season opened at $2.417per gallon in early October. The opening level was modestly below the prior winter's October starting point, reflecting a benign inventory picture heading into autumn (PADD 2 propane inventories were running near five-year averages in late September per the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report). Through October and November the residential price barely moved, drifting up by less than a cent a week. By the end of November the national average was still sitting in the $2.46 range, only about 5 cents above the season open.
December brought the first real demand lift. The residential average rose from $2.478 at the start of December to $2.548 by the end of December, a roughly 7 cents per gallon move in a single month, with the sharpest single week (+3.3 cents) in the week ending 8 December. The Mont Belvieu spot had led the move, jumping roughly 10 cents (from $0.58 to $0.68) over the opening days of December.
Early January was quiet: three consecutive weeks within a cent of $2.555. The acceleration came late in the month, with +3.2 cents in the week ending 26 January and the season's largest weekly move, +4.9 cents, in the week ending 2 February as the wholesale series spiked to its own season peak. From mid-February the retail series flattened in the mid-$2.60s, and the season high of $2.678 per gallon arrived in the week ending 2026-03-23, just before the survey closed. That high is well within the normal range for a typical-cold winter and far below the polar vortex 2014 weekly record of $4.010 (see the polar vortex page for the contrast).
Through March the residential price held in a narrow band ($2.65 to $2.68); unusually, the series never faded into the survey close, because retail contract pricing was still catching up to the late-January wholesale move. The EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey closed for the season at the end of March (it runs October to March only), with the final reading at $2.674 per gallon. EIA publishes no residential price April through September; the survey resumes in October.
Why winter prices peak when they do
The annual residential propane peak usually falls in January or February in the EIA weekly archive. Looking at the 12-year history on this site, the modal peak month is January (5 of 12 years), with February second (3 of 12); the exceptions cluster in November-December and the odd March. The driver is the lag between heating demand, inventory draw, and dealer contract roll. Heating demand builds through November and December but dealer inventory buffers absorb most of the early-season pressure. By mid- January, inventory has drawn enough that dealers are buying at the rack at peak winter rack basis, and their residential contract pricing follows within four to six weeks. That delay puts the residential peak roughly a month after the wholesale and rack peak.
Cold-snap event timing matters. A polar vortex in early January typically lifts the seasonal peak by 15 to 35 cents per gallon and shifts it earlier (to late January or early February). A winter without sustained sub-zero events typically produces a late-season peak that sits only 25 to 50 cents above the season start. The 2025-2026 winter is in the second category: the season high of $2.678 was 26 cents above the October open, with no polar vortex event.
Winter cold-snap math
A typical Midwest cold snap (say, a five-day stretch where average temperatures run 20 degrees below normal) increases regional propane demand sharply while it lasts. The effect is visible in the EIA weekly stocks data: PADD 2 propane inventory ranges from a late-autumn peak near 29 million barrels down to under 10 million at the end of a hard winter (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 2023-2026 range), and a severe cold stretch can draw well over a million barrels from the region in a single week, as the January 2014 episode did for three weeks running. One cold snap of that magnitude typically lifts Midwest residential propane by 5 to 12 cents per gallon over the following four to six weeks as contracts roll.
A polar vortex (sustained sub-zero across a large area, two to three weeks duration) is a different animal. January 2014 saw the most severe US cold-snap event in modern propane history, with PADD 2 demand exceeding rack delivery capacity and many dealers running out of supply (the "propane shortage" of January 2014 was real and led to emergency declarations in 26 states). The weekly residential survey hit $4.010 per gallon in the week ending 27 January 2014, a record that has not been approached since. The polar vortex page covers this in detail.
Winter pricing for non-residential customers
Commercial accounts on cost-plus contracts saw the same rack-basis lift through December and January that residential walk-in customers saw. Commercial accounts on fixed-price contracts were insulated, paying the contract price regardless of the wholesale move. Agricultural accounts that had pre-bought summer inventory and were drawing from stored propane were insulated from the seasonal lift entirely.
School district autogas buses, restaurants, forklift fleets, and other commercial propane consumers typically saw 8 to 15% per-gallon increases through mid-winter, considerably less than the residential walk-in increase. This is one of the reasons the commercial-vs-residential spread widens in winter: residential walk-in customers absorb the volatility while commercial contracts smooth it.
What this season says about 2026-2027
The 2025-2026 season produced a peak in the typical range and ended without notable inventory stress. Going into the off-season, US propane inventory is rebuilding on normal seasonal pattern. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is the official EIA forecast for the 2026-2027 winter; our forecast page quotes it verbatim with the issue date.
For homeowners on will-call pricing, the lesson from the 2025-2026 season is that the inventory-and-demand pattern was unusually gentle but directionally textbook. A summer fill in July or August would have captured the season's low retail price; a fall fill in October captured a price about 25 cents below the season high; and anyone filling from mid-February onward paid the season's highest prices, because this season never faded into the survey close. Our summer page covers off-season buying.
Related
- Summer propane price per gallon
- 5-year seasonal patterns
- Polar vortex 2014 spike
- EIA STEO forecast
- Agricultural propane (autumn demand)
- Propane price per gallon 2026
FAQ
When does the winter peak typically happen?
Usually January or February. January is the modal peak month in the EIA weekly archive (5 of the last 12 years), with February second. Cold-snap timing can shift the peak in either direction; the 2025-2026 season peaked at the late-March survey close.
How much does a cold snap lift residential prices?
A typical five-day Midwest cold snap lifts regional residential propane by 5 to 12 cents per gallon over the following four to six weeks as contracts roll. A polar vortex event (sustained sub-zero, multi-week) can lift prices by 30 to 100+ cents.
Are residential prices the same as wholesale through winter?
No. Residential walk-in pricing responds to wholesale moves with a four-to-eight-week lag. The full residential-to-wholesale spread is broken down on the wholesale vs retail page.
When should I fill my tank for next winter?
July through early September is typically the optimal residential fill window. By October, autumn demand pull starts; by November, heating demand is building. See the summer page for the off-season buying mechanics.