Winter Propane Price Per Gallon: 2025-2026 Recap
A walk through what residential propane prices did across the 2025-2026 heating season, where the demand-and-supply pressure showed up in the EIA weekly survey, and what the pattern says about the season just ended.
How the season actually played out
The 2025-2026 heating season opened at $2.417per gallon in early October. The opening level was modestly below the prior winter's October starting point, reflecting a benign inventory picture heading into autumn (PADD 2 propane inventories were running near five-year averages in late September per the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report). Through October the residential price climbed steadily by 0.5 to 1.5 cents per gallon per week as autumn corn-drying demand drew on Midwest inventory and heating demand began in the Upper Midwest. By the end of November the national average was sitting in the $2.58 range.
December was the most active month. Two cold-snap events (one in the second week of December, a more sustained one in the fourth week) lifted heating demand sharply across the Midwest and Northeast. The residential average rose from $2.478 at the start of December to $2.548 by the end of December, a roughly 7 cents per gallon move in a single month. The Mont Belvieu wholesale spot moved less aggressively because exports partially absorbed the domestic demand impulse.
The first week of January 2026 brought a small pullback as mild weather returned to much of the country and the inventory draw rate eased. The pullback was visible as a modest weekly downtick in the EIA series before the price resumed its seasonal climb through January and February. The eventual winter peak came in the week ending 2026-02-16 at $2.665 per gallon, well within the normal range for a typical-cold winter and far below the polar vortex 2014 peak of $4.011 (see the polar vortex page for the contrast).
Through March the residential price held in a narrow band ($2.65 to $2.68) as heating demand wound down but inventory rebuilding had not yet begun. The EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey closed for the season at the end of March (it runs October to March only), with the final reading at $2.674 per gallon. The off-season monthly residential figures will start in April and run through October.
Why winter prices peak when they do
The annual residential propane peak almost always falls between mid-January and mid-February in the EIA monthly archive. Looking at the 12-year history on this site, the modal peak month is February (occurring in most years; January is the second most common). The driver is the lag between heating demand, inventory draw, and dealer contract roll. Heating demand builds through November and December but dealer inventory buffers absorb most of the early-season pressure. By mid- January, inventory has drawn enough that dealers are buying at the rack at peak winter rack basis, and their residential contract pricing follows within four to six weeks. That delay puts the residential peak roughly a month after the wholesale and rack peak.
Cold-snap event timing matters. A polar vortex in early January typically lifts the seasonal peak by 15 to 35 cents per gallon and shifts it earlier (to late January or early February). A mild winter without sustained sub-zero events typically produces a peak in late February that is only 30 to 50 cents above the season start. The 2025-2026 winter sits in the second category: typical cold but no polar vortex.
Winter cold-snap math
A typical Midwest cold snap (say, a five-day stretch where average temperatures run 20 degrees below normal) increases regional propane demand by approximately 25 to 40% over those five days. PADD 2 daily propane consumption averages roughly 700 to 900 thousand barrels per day during heating season; a cold snap can push that to 1.0 to 1.2 million barrels per day. That additional 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day over five days translates to roughly 1.0 to 2.0 million barrels of additional draw, which is meaningful against typical PADD 2 working inventory of 30 to 50 million barrels. One cold snap of that magnitude typically lifts Midwest residential propane by 5 to 12 cents per gallon over the following four to six weeks as contracts roll.
A polar vortex (sustained sub-zero across a large area, two to three weeks duration) is a different animal. January 2014 saw the most severe US cold-snap event in modern propane history, with PADD 2 demand exceeding rack delivery capacity and many dealers running out of supply (the "propane shortage" of January 2014 was real and led to emergency declarations in 26 states). The residential monthly average for February 2014 hit $4.011 per gallon, a record that has not been approached since. The polar vortex page covers this in detail.
Winter pricing for non-residential customers
Commercial accounts on cost-plus contracts saw the same rack-basis lift through December and January that residential walk-in customers saw. Commercial accounts on fixed-price contracts were insulated, paying the contract price regardless of the wholesale move. Agricultural accounts that had pre-bought summer inventory and were drawing from stored propane were insulated from the seasonal lift entirely.
School district autogas buses, restaurants, forklift fleets, and other commercial propane consumers typically saw 8 to 15% per-gallon increases through mid-winter, considerably less than the residential walk-in increase. This is one of the reasons the commercial-vs-residential spread widens in winter: residential walk-in customers absorb the volatility while commercial contracts smooth it.
What this season says about 2026-2027
The 2025-2026 season produced a peak in the typical range and ended without notable inventory stress. Going into the off-season, US propane inventory is rebuilding on normal seasonal pattern. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is the official EIA forecast for the 2026-2027 winter; our forecast page quotes it verbatim with the issue date.
For homeowners on will-call pricing, the lesson from the 2025-2026 season is that the inventory-and-demand pattern was largely textbook. A summer fill in July or August would have captured the season's low retail price; a fall fill in October captured a price close to the season average; a January fill captured the peak. Our summer page covers off-season buying.
Related
- Summer propane price per gallon
- 5-year seasonal patterns
- Polar vortex 2014 spike
- EIA STEO forecast
- Agricultural propane (autumn demand)
- Propane price per gallon 2026
FAQ
When does the winter peak typically happen?
Mid-January to mid-February for the US residential monthly average. February is the modal peak month in the EIA monthly archive. Cold-snap timing can shift the peak earlier.
How much does a cold snap lift residential prices?
A typical five-day Midwest cold snap lifts regional residential propane by 5 to 12 cents per gallon over the following four to six weeks as contracts roll. A polar vortex event (sustained sub-zero, multi-week) can lift prices by 30 to 100+ cents.
Are residential prices the same as wholesale through winter?
No. Residential walk-in pricing responds to wholesale moves with a four-to-eight-week lag. The full residential-to-wholesale spread is broken down on the wholesale vs retail page.
When should I fill my tank for next winter?
July through early September is typically the optimal residential fill window. By October, autumn demand pull starts; by November, heating demand is building. See the summer page for the off-season buying mechanics.