Propane Price Per Gallon 2026
The year-by-year US residential propane price, with 2026 tracked week-by-week from the EIA survey and the rest of the calendar year forecast from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Will propane prices go down in 2026?
A little, on EIA's forecast.EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026, puts the US average residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon for November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below last winter on the same measure, with the average propane-heated home spending 3.2% less. In a winter 10% colder than its base case EIA has $2.60; 10% warmer, $2.47. Those outlook prices exclude taxes, so they are not the same measure as the weekly survey figure.
Crude is the upside risk: the October 2026 STEO raised its Brent forecast to about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, from $91 and $74a month earlier, and EIA's propane forecast still comes out lower than last winter. Regional figures and the weather cases are on the forecast page.
2026 year-to-date track
The US residential propane price entered 2026 at $2.554 per gallon (week ending 2026-01-05). The reading held within a cent of that level through mid-January, accelerated in the last week of January and first week of February (+8 cents over two weeks), then flattened in the mid-$2.60s. The season high of $2.678 came in the week ending 23 March, just before the survey closed. At the final reading of the 2025-2026 season (week of 30 March 2026), the residential average sat at $2.674 per gallon. The survey reopened for the 2026-2027 season with $2.586 per gallon for the week ending 5 October 2026, and the latest reading is $2.689 (week ending 19 October 2026).
2026 in context
Compared to recent calendar years, 2026 is tracking somewhat above the 2024 annual average ($2.506 per gallon) and the 2025 annual average ($2.589 per gallon). The 2026 year-to-date reading sits comfortably below the 2022 average ($2.759), which was lifted by the Russia-Ukraine NGL feedstock disruption, and below the 2014 average of $2.856 driven by the polar vortex spike. (Annual averages here cover the weeks the EIA survey publishes, October through March.) For full historical context, our historical chart page plots residential propane back to 2014.
The EIA outlook for the rest of 2026
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, published monthly, is the official US government energy price outlook, and each October EIA adds its Winter Fuels Outlook, the residential propane forecast for the coming winter. The current editions are the October 2026 STEO and the Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, both issued 6 October 2026:
- Residential propane, winter 2026-2027: $2.52 per gallon US average for November to March, by month Nov 2026 $2.51, Dec 2026 $2.52, Jan 2027 $2.52, Feb 2027 $2.53, Mar 2027 $2.52. That is 2.4% below the $2.58 EIA puts on last winter on the same measure (prices exclude taxes).
- Crude: Brent about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, revised up from $91 and $74 in September, with about $105 expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Our forecast page carries the regional table and the colder and warmer weather cases. We do not invent forecasts on this site; EIA's are the only ones we quote.
What could move 2026 propane prices higher
Three risks could push 2026 residential propane prices materially above the central case.
- Cold-snap or polar vortex events: EIA's outlook does not model a severe cold snap. In January 2014 the weekly US residential average went from $2.829 to the all-time record of $4.010 in three weeks. See the polar vortex page for the 2014 precedent.
- Hurricane disruption to Gulf Coast fractionation: A Category 4 or 5 hurricane tracking through the Mont Belvieu, Houston Ship Channel, or Lake Charles complex can take significant US LPG production offline for several weeks. The 2008 hurricanes Gustav and Ike produced notable but short-lived wholesale price spikes.
- Sustained LPG export surge: If Asian or European LPG demand pulls hard on US Gulf Coast terminals, domestic Mont Belvieu spot can tighten and transmit to residential pricing. The LPG exports page covers this channel.
What could move 2026 propane prices lower
Two scenarios could push the 2026 calendar year average notably below central case.
- Unusually warm winter 2026-2027: A mild November-December 2026 with limited cold-snap events would keep inventory pressure benign and residential pricing modest through year-end.
- Slowing US economic activity: Recessionary conditions reduce industrial and commercial propane consumption (forklift fleets, commercial heating). The 2020 pandemic-driven economic contraction produced the lowest annual residential propane price of the last decade ($1.909 per gallon across the survey weeks EIA published that year).
How to use the 2026 number
For a residential customer planning the 2026 propane spend, the relevant number is the regional EIA average plus a typical dealer-margin adjustment, not the national weekly figure on its own. Our by-state pages give state-specific weekly figures for the largest residential propane states. For a national-average reference, the figure at the top of this page (and on the homepage) is appropriate.
For commercial customers, the residential figure is the wrong benchmark. EIA puts the commercial sector 33.7% below residential nationally (State Energy Data System, 2024 data), though the published state figures run from 3.2% in Iowa to 62.6% in Hawaii, so the national percentage is not a discount to expect locally. The commercial vs residential page carries the full state table.
Related
- Propane price per gallon: historical chart 2014-2026
- Winter propane price per gallon: 2025-2026 recap
- Summer propane price per gallon: off-season buying
- EIA STEO forecast (verbatim)
- Are propane prices going up or down right now?
- Polar vortex 2014 spike
FAQ
What is the 2026 US residential propane price?
For the week ending 19 October 2026, the US residential propane price was $2.689 per gallon per the EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey. The page above tracks the week-by-week 2026 series.
Is 2026 propane more expensive than 2025?
The 2026 year-to-date national residential reading is modestly above the 2025 calendar year average of $2.589 per gallon. Year-on- year comparison varies by region; some states are below 2025 averages and some are above.
Where does the EIA forecast come from?
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published monthly. STEO is the official US government propane price forecast and is the only forecast quoted on this site. We do not invent forecasts.
Will propane prices fall in 2026?
A little, on EIA's forecast. Its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (published 6 October 2026) puts the US average residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon for November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below last winter on the same measure, with propane-heated homes spending 3.2% less. A winter 10% colder than EIA's base case would put it at $2.60. Crude is the upside risk: the October 2026 STEO raised Brent to about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027. The latest weekly survey reading is $2.689 per gallon (EIA, week ending 19 October 2026).