Propane Price Per Gallon 2026
The year-by-year US residential propane price, with 2026 tracked week-by-week from the EIA survey and the rest of the calendar year forecast from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Will propane prices go down in 2026?
Most likely lower through late summer, then it depends on the autumn crude path. The EIA residential survey is off-season from April through September, so the last published US average, $2.674 per gallon (week ending 30 March 2026), stands until the survey reopens. The historical pattern is a seasonal trough in the August-September window, typically 12 to 18% below the winter peak, which would put a late-summer monthly average around $2.20 to $2.35 if the usual pattern holds.
The crude picture that dominates the autumn ramp firmed back up: after renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent as high as $105 per barrel on 23 July 2026, the August 2026 EIA STEO raised its Brent crude forecast to about $87 per barrel in 2026 (about $85 in the third quarter, $78 in the fourth) before easing to about $69 in 2027. Propane is a crude-correlated NGL, so a firmer near-term crude path is a modest upside for wholesale propane heading into the 2026-2027 heating season rather than the downside it looked like in July. Mont Belvieu spot was around $0.72 per gallon in mid-August 2026 with US propane inventories about 31% above their five-year average (EIA, week ending 14 August 2026). EIA publishes its first official residential forecast for next winter in the October Winter Fuels Outlook.
2026 year-to-date track
The US residential propane price entered 2026 at $2.554 per gallon (week ending 2026-01-05). The reading held within a cent of that level through mid-January, accelerated in the last week of January and first week of February (+8 cents over two weeks), then flattened in the mid-$2.60s. The season high of $2.678 came in the week ending 23 March, just before the survey closed. By the final reading (week of 30 March 2026), the residential average sat at $2.674 per gallon.
2026 in context
Compared to recent calendar years, 2026 is tracking somewhat above the 2024 annual average ($2.506 per gallon) and the 2025 annual average ($2.589 per gallon). The 2026 year-to-date reading sits comfortably below the 2022 average ($2.759), which was lifted by the Russia-Ukraine NGL feedstock disruption, and below the 2014 average of $2.856 driven by the polar vortex spike. (Annual averages here cover the weeks the EIA survey publishes, October through March.) For full historical context, our historical chart page plots residential propane back to 2014.
The STEO outlook and seasonal pattern for the rest of 2026
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, published monthly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is the official US government energy price outlook. The most recent STEO (August 2026) reflects renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz: after renewed tanker attacks pushed Brent as high as $105 per barrel on 23 July 2026, EIA raised its Brent crude forecast to about $87 per barrel in 2026 (about $85 in the third quarter, $78 in the fourth) before easing to about $69 in 2027. STEO does not forecast a residential propane price at calendar-month granularity, so the path below is the historical seasonal shape, read against that crude backdrop:
- April through September 2026: A normal seasonal trough in the August-September window, consistent with the historical pattern. The EIA monthly residential series (M_EPLLPA_PRS_NUS_DPG) typically bottoms in the 12 to 18% below winter peak range, which would put the August 2026 monthly average around $2.20 to $2.35 if the typical pattern holds. The EIA STEO forecasts at this level of granularity are best read as a central case with wide confidence bands.
- October through December 2026: The autumn ramp-up to the 2026-2027 heating season. The STEO Winter Fuels Outlook, published each October, is the first EIA point forecast for next winter's residential propane price; until it lands there is no EIA forecast for the period. With the Hormuz disruption resolved and crude now forecast to ease, the wildcard this year is weather rather than the crude path feeding through to wholesale propane.
Our forecast page quotes the most recent STEO verbatim with the issue date. We do not invent forecasts on this site. The STEO forecast is the only price prediction we publish.
What could move 2026 propane prices higher
Three risks could push 2026 residential propane prices materially above the central case.
- Cold-snap or polar vortex events: Heating-driven inventory draws can lift residential prices 15 to 35 cents per gallon in a single month if sustained sub-zero weather affects PADD 2 (Midwest). See the polar vortex page for the 2014 precedent.
- Hurricane disruption to Gulf Coast fractionation: A Category 4 or 5 hurricane tracking through the Mont Belvieu, Houston Ship Channel, or Lake Charles complex can take significant US LPG production offline for several weeks. The 2008 hurricanes Gustav and Ike produced notable but short-lived wholesale price spikes.
- Sustained LPG export surge: If Asian or European LPG demand pulls hard on US Gulf Coast terminals, domestic Mont Belvieu spot can tighten and transmit to residential pricing. The LPG exports page covers this channel.
What could move 2026 propane prices lower
Two scenarios could push the 2026 calendar year average notably below central case.
- Unusually warm winter 2026-2027: A mild November-December 2026 with limited cold-snap events would keep inventory pressure benign and residential pricing modest through year-end.
- Slowing US economic activity: Recessionary conditions reduce industrial and commercial propane consumption (forklift fleets, commercial heating). The 2020 pandemic-driven economic contraction produced the lowest annual residential propane price of the last decade ($1.909 per gallon across the survey weeks EIA published that year).
How to use the 2026 number
For a residential customer planning the 2026 propane spend, the relevant number is the regional EIA average plus a typical dealer-margin adjustment, not the national weekly figure on its own. Our by-state pages give state-specific weekly figures for the largest residential propane states. For a national-average reference, the figure at the top of this page (and on the homepage) is appropriate.
For commercial customers, the residential figure is too high (commercial accounts pay 8 to 20% below). See the commercial vs residential page for the per-segment math.
Related
- Propane price per gallon: historical chart 2014-2026
- Winter propane price per gallon: 2025-2026 recap
- Summer propane price per gallon: off-season buying
- EIA STEO forecast (verbatim)
- Polar vortex 2014 spike
FAQ
What is the 2026 US residential propane price?
For the week ending 30 March 2026, the US residential propane price was $2.674 per gallon per the EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey. The page above tracks the week-by-week 2026 series.
Is 2026 propane more expensive than 2025?
The 2026 year-to-date national residential reading is modestly above the 2025 calendar year average of $2.589 per gallon. Year-on- year comparison varies by region; some states are below 2025 averages and some are above.
Where does the EIA forecast come from?
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published monthly. STEO is the official US government propane price forecast and is the only forecast quoted on this site. We do not invent forecasts.
Will propane prices fall in 2026?
The residential survey is off-season April through September, and the historical pattern is a seasonal trough in August-September before the autumn ramp into the 2026-2027 heating season. The crude backdrop firmed back up: after renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent as high as $105 per barrel on 23 July 2026, the August 2026 STEO raised its Brent crude forecast to about $87 per barrel in 2026 and $69 in 2027, so crude is a modest upside for wholesale propane in the near term. Departures from the seasonal pattern depend on weather, supply, and export demand.