Are Propane Prices Going Up or Down?
The honest answer needs two prices and a calendar. The US residential retail benchmark is holding through the summer off-season, the daily wholesale spot is the only propane price moving right now, and the seasonal pattern points higher into winter. Here is what each horizon says.
Retail is flat, wholesale is easing, and the season points up. The last published US residential average is $2.674 per gallon (EIA, week of 30 March 2026) and it will not change until the weekly survey reopens (expected October 7, 2026). The daily Mont Belvieu wholesale spot, the one price moving through the off-season, is $0.685 per gallon (August 25, 2026), down 12.8% over the past 90 days. Seasonally, propane bottoms in late summer and rises through the heating season, so the direction into winter is up; how far depends on weather and crude.
Horizon 1: retail, right now (holding)
The price a homeowner actually pays, delivered, is tracked by the EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey. That survey runs only October through March, so between the end of March and early October there is no new residential reading. The last one, $2.674 per gallon for the week ending 30 March 2026, is the current benchmark and it is not moving. When the survey reopens (expected October 7, 2026), the opening reading has been the cheapest published figure of the season in most of the last dozen years, then it climbs (see the seasonal overlay).
Horizon 2: wholesale, day to day (easing)
The Mont Belvieu wholesale spot is the one propane price that moves through the off-season, and it is the best leading indicator of where retail heads when the survey reopens. It closed at $0.685 per gallon on August 25, 2026, down 12.8% over the past 90 days and down 3.5% over the past 30 days. It is a traded NGL benchmark, not a delivered retail price, and the retail figure sits well above it: the last weekly residential-to-wholesale spread was $1.84 per gallon (what that spread covers). For the two-number snapshot and the full daily chart, see propane price per gallon today.
Horizon 3: the season (up, on the calendar)
Propane has one of the most reliable seasonal shapes of any fuel: a late-summer trough, a climb through autumn as heating demand and crop-drying pick up, and a mid-winter peak, before easing back in spring. Across the 2025-2026 season the US average rose 25.7 cents per gallon from October to March. So on the calendar alone, the direction from a summer low into the next heating season is up. The size of the climb, not its direction, is the open question, and cold-snap surges can add 30 to 60 cents per gallon over a 4-to-6-week window on top of the seasonal trend (seasonal patterns in full).
Horizon 4: the forward view (crude firmed up)
The only official forward number is EIA's. The monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts crude but does not carry a residential propane forecast outside the annual Winter Fuels Outlook (next due October 2026). The August 2026 STEO (issued 11 August 2026) raised its Brent crude forecast to about $87 per barrel for 2026 before easing to about $69 in 2027. Because propane is a crude-correlated NGL, a firmer near-term crude path is a modest upside for wholesale propane into autumn, while the longer path still eases. The next STEO is due 9 September 2026. We quote STEO verbatim with its issue date and do not publish our own forecast (full forecast page).
Putting it together
Right now the retail benchmark is holding at $2.674 per gallon because the survey is off-season; the live wholesale signal is easing; and both the seasonal calendar and the firmer crude path point the price higher into the 2026-2027 heating season. For a homeowner, the practical read is the same one the seasonal pattern has given for years: the cheapest propane of the year is usually bought in the summer off-season, before the autumn climb (summer off-season buying and pre-buy vs will-call).
Are propane prices going up or down: quick answers
Are propane prices going up or down right now?
Two answers, because two different prices are in play. The US residential retail benchmark is holding at $2.674 per gallon (EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey, week ending 30 March 2026) because EIA does not survey residential propane April through September, so that figure stands until the survey reopens (expected October 7, 2026). The one propane price that moves day to day through the off-season is the Mont Belvieu wholesale spot, and it has been easing lately: $0.685 per gallon on August 25, 2026, down 12.8% over the past 90 days. The seasonal pattern points higher from here: propane prices bottom in late summer and rise through the October-March heating season.
Will propane prices go up this winter (2026-2027)?
The seasonal direction is up: in a typical year the US residential average rises from a late-summer trough into a mid-winter peak, and the 2025-2026 season rose 25.7 cents per gallon from October to March. How far it rises depends on weather and crude. EIA has not published a residential price forecast for next winter yet (its annual Winter Fuels Outlook is due October 2026), but the August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook firmed the near-term crude path, raising its Brent forecast to about $87 per barrel for 2026 before easing to about $69 in 2027. Propane is a crude-correlated NGL, so that is a modest upside into autumn.
Why is the retail propane price not changing week to week?
Because the survey behind it is between seasons. The authoritative US retail figure is the EIA weekly survey, which runs only October through March. From the end of March to early October EIA publishes no new residential reading, so the last value ($2.674 per gallon, week ending 30 March 2026) holds until the survey reopens. A daily "national retail" number quoted in the off-season is an estimate, not a survey reading. The Mont Belvieu wholesale spot is the best day-to-day read on where retail is heading when the survey reopens.
How does propane compare with a year ago?
The 2025-2026 heating season ended at $2.674 per gallon (week of 30 March 2026), down 0.6% from the same week of 2025 ($2.690). Across full calendar years the survey-week average was $2.506 in 2024 and $2.589 in 2025, so recent seasons have run in a fairly narrow band. Against the five-year average the latest reading is +3.7%.