Are Propane Prices Going Up or Down?
The honest answer needs two prices, a calendar and a forecast. The weekly EIA retail survey is running, the daily wholesale spot moves every trading day, and EIA has published its outlook for the winter. Here is what each horizon says.
Retail has been rising, wholesale is rising, and EIA expects a slightly cheaper winter than the last. The US residential average is $2.689 per gallon (EIA, week of 19 October 2026), up 5.6 cents on the week before, and 10.5% above the same week last year ($2.433). The daily Mont Belvieu wholesale spot is $1.133 per gallon (October 20, 2026), up 56.7% over the past 90 days. For the winter as a whole, EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts $2.52 per gallon, 2.4% below last winter.
Horizon 1: retail, this week (rising)
The price a homeowner actually pays, delivered, is tracked by the EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey, which publishes every Wednesday through the heating season. The latest reading is $2.689 per gallon for the week ending 19 October 2026, up 5.6 cents on the week before, and 10.5% above the same week last year ($2.433). The next reading is expected October 28, 2026. Within a season the price usually climbs from the October opening into mid-winter (see the seasonal overlay).
Horizon 2: wholesale, day to day (rising)
The Mont Belvieu wholesale spot moves every trading day and tends to lead the retail figure. It closed at $1.133 per gallon on October 20, 2026, up 56.7% over the past 90 days and up 32.5% over the past 30 days. It is a traded NGL benchmark, not a delivered retail price, and the retail figure sits well above it: the last weekly residential-to-wholesale spread was $1.56 per gallon (what that spread covers). For the two-number snapshot and the full daily chart, see propane price per gallon today.
Horizon 3: the season (up, on the calendar)
Propane has one of the most reliable seasonal shapes of any fuel: a late-summer trough, a climb through autumn as heating demand and crop-drying pick up, and a mid-winter peak, before easing back in spring. Across the 2025-2026 season the US average rose 25.7 cents per gallon from October to March. So on the calendar alone, the direction from a summer low into the next heating season is up. The size of the climb, not its direction, is the open question, and a severe cold snap can overwhelm the seasonal trend: in January 2014 the weekly average went from $2.829 to the all-time record of $4.010 in three weeks (seasonal patterns in full).
Horizon 4: the forward view (EIA expects a slightly cheaper winter)
The only official forward number is EIA's. Its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026 with the October Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecasts the US average residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon from November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below last winter on the same measure, with the average propane-heated home spending 3.2% less. In a winter 10% colder than its base case, EIA has $2.60. The October STEO (issued 6 October 2026) also raised its Brent crude forecast to about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027, which is the upside risk for wholesale propane. The next STEO is due 10 November 2026. We quote EIA with its issue date and do not publish our own forecast (full forecast page).
Putting it together
The weekly retail survey is running again at $2.689 per gallon, 10.5% above the same week last year ($2.433); the live wholesale signal is rising; and EIA's forecast for the winter as a whole, $2.52per gallon, is a little below last winter, with weather the main swing factor. For a homeowner the practical choices now are between filling at today's price and a fixed or capped contract for the winter (pre-buy vs will-call).
Are propane prices going up or down: quick answers
Are propane prices going up or down right now?
The US residential average is $2.689 per gallon (EIA Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Survey, week ending 19 October 2026), up 5.6 cents on the week before and 10.5% above the same week last year ($2.433). The Mont Belvieu wholesale spot has been rising: $1.133 per gallon on October 20, 2026, up 56.7% over the past 90 days. For the winter as a whole, EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook (6 October 2026) forecasts $2.52 per gallon, 2.4% below last winter.
Will propane prices go up this winter (2026-2027)?
EIA expects the winter to be a little cheaper than the last one. Its Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27, published 6 October 2026, forecasts the US average residential propane price at $2.52 per gallon from November 2026 to March 2027, 2.4% below last winter on the same measure, and $2.60 if the winter is 10% colder than its base case. Within a season the price usually climbs from October into mid-winter: the 2025-2026 season rose 25.7 cents per gallon from October to March. Crude is the upside risk; the October 2026 STEO raised its Brent forecast to about $96 per barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027.
How does propane compare with a year ago?
The latest weekly reading is $2.689 per gallon (week of 19 October 2026), up 10.5% from the same week of 2025 ($2.433). Across full calendar years the survey-week average was $2.506 in 2024 and $2.589 in 2025, so recent seasons have run in a fairly narrow band. Against the five-year average the latest reading is +4.2%.